Ummmmmm......Now what?

Ok its 6(six) days away from the Whistlestop Marathon (WSM). Last week Tuesday was a rest day on the training calendar. That felt odd since Tuesdays are normally my 'long' run days. So I flipped back through the calendar and realized that it was only the 2nd Tuesday in 2009 without a run. I have a 'special' calendar that I use only for scheduling races. I've found it helpful to keep training separate from all the other clutter on the official "Golden Calendar" that Lisa uses to keep track of family d00ties.
I looked back at my training calendar and was shocked to find out that I have been preparing for WSM since January 6th and I have no idea what I'm doing or what to expect on race day. The olde saw "the more you learn, the more you realize you don't know" is bearing itself out.
When I started this regimen, I knew I needed to train hard and follow a schedule built by someone who knows what they are doing. I believe I have done so. I assumed that over the course of 10(ten) months I would get a feel for what to expect on race day. Boy, was I wrong. Even following a proper schedule I still have g00d days and bad days. There are days I run like the wind. There are days I run like a park bench. These extremes happen over short and long distances alike. I have felt great after 18 mile runs. I have felt like death 8 miles into a 20 mile run.

Not knowing what to expect makes race strategy hard to develop. I want very much to finish in under 4(four) hours. That means I need to be just under a 9:09 minute pace. So, do I try to peg that pace each mile? Do I log a bunch of 8:30's to put some time in the 'bank'? I know I'll likely fade at the end, especially after the greatly feared mile 20(twenty) where so many hit the wall. How much will I fade?? Should I start slowly and finish strong? Every thing I read says that the best thing to do is to start slowly and pick up speed as you approach the finish line. I also read that 90% of ppl don't do this. If I start at 9:30 pace, will I be able to pick up the time later after I've already run 10+ miles?

Who knows?? I sure don't.